The Final Days and the Democracy Question
11/3
NY-18 Congressman Elect…
The midterm elections are 2 days away and both Pat Ryan and Colin Schmitt have shifted their focus to getting people out to vote. Over 40 million Americans have made their decision and cast their vote and according to NBC’s early vote tracking in New York, over 1 million ballots have been cast with 72% done in person. In these last two weeks, Ryan and Schmitt have stayed on their messaging but have put much attention to get-out-to-vote efforts once early voting in began on October 29th. Last weekend, Schmitt went door to door encouraging voters to vote early and at the same time, Ryan was too. Both candidates have held elected office before so the final days of campaigning are not something new for them.
During the final week, Schmitt blamed both “Pat Ryan & Biden’s reckless policies of taxing & wasteful spending” for the increased interest rates the Federal Reserve came out with. From various polls that have been done the most important issue for voters has been the economy and inflation, the core of Schmitt’s campaign, and now more than ever he is driving that message out. Schmitt spent most of his week going to businesses around the district and meeting with volunteers. He appeared on Fox News during the week to talk about the economy, crime, and the momentum shift in favor of the Republicans. He had 3 rallies on Saturday November 5th with NY’s gubernatorial candidate Lee Zeldin and former Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard. He spent the final Sunday before election day with breakfast events held by the Esopus Fire Department and the Dutchess County sheriff candidate. Almost every weekend Schmitt spent it attending events across the district so there wasn’t much of a change to his strategy, he just increased his appearances.
For Pat Ryan, he spent the last weekend before Tuesday rallying voters and taking himself to vote. During the week, he appeared on CNN with Jake Tapper, the Philip DeFranco’s show, and Michelangelo Signorile Show on SiriusXM Progress talking about how although there has been a shift in momentum towards the Republicans, he criticized the polls because they painted the picture that he was not going to win in August but did and believes that democrats and himself will win on Tuesday. There wasn’t much of a change with his message last week, he continued to call Schmitt out for his stands on issues as well as emphasizing his solutions as he has during the whole campaigning.
Early Voting Numbers
Shown below is data from NBC News’ tracker of early voting and it is important to note that early voting this year has suppressed early voting from 2018 nationally. More than 1 million voters voted early in New York with 61% being registered democrats and 21% being registered republicans. It’s no shock that more registered democrats have voted early because from previous years that has been the trend. Another typical trend that has played out has been the voting patterns of age groups with the age group of 65 or over making up the majority of early voting, 47% of the voters nationally, and 49% of the voters in New York. While early voting numbers may be motivation for democrats, we will not know what happens until Tuesday.
(NBC News Tracking Early Vote, https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-elections/early-vote)
The Democracy Question
According to polls from Gallup, the Pew Research Center, and various news outlets like ABC News and CNN, the economy and/or inflation is the top issue for voters. Since the midterm elections are considered as a job evaluation for the current party and president in the White House and with the current state of the economy being blamed on President Biden and democrats, it is not looking good for them. While Democrats and President Biden did see some of that pressure loosen back in August, it intensified as gas prices hiked up again. While it is important to evaluate the top issues for voters, I want to note an issue that has been said democrats failed at capitalizing on and to be frank, an important issue that I believe has been widely overlooked, our democracy. The New York Times came out with a full report and investigation into the number of candidates that have questioned and/or doubted the results of the 2020 election. The report found that over 370 Republican candidates ranging from state elected offices like governor and secretary of state, house of representatives, and Senate have questioned and/or doubted the result of the 2020 election. Federal agencies like the FBI and Homeland Security have stated that the 2020 election was one the safest elections in our history along with the Courts that ruled on fraud claims that had no basis of fact or evidence are all examples that reassured the fact that the 2020 election was legitimate. However, 103 of those 377 candidates running for office today, have consistently cast doubt on the election from before or on January 6th up until now (The New York Times).
(The New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/10/13/us/politics/republican-candidates-2020-election-misinformation.html)
What is interesting is that 74 candidates stepped away from those claims before or on January 6th while 64 candidates have questioned the election only until recently in 2022 and these two types of candidates tell two different stories. For 74 of the candidates, as time went on after November leading up to the insurrection of January 6th, they either faced the fact that the election was legitimate or did not expect it to manifest into what it did in January. Some of the republican candidates may have also played it right in stepping away so the political damage would not be so severe later. On the other hand, you have 64 candidates casting doubt in the election only this year and it can be said that they are doing that to get them over the finish line for the midterms because of where they are running and the people they are trying to convince. However, we have seen how playing into those claims has resulted in real threats to elected officials and the capitol and that is where the core of the problems lies. Whether a candidate truly believes it or not can be hard to determine but when they are playing into the game, they understand that they have a significant influence on people, but it can get out of control very quickly.
Why is this important? If as a country there is not a consensus that the election procedures in place as of now are legitimate and valid, we are actively chipping away at the core of our democracy. Whether you believe elections are legitimate should not be determined by whether you are republican or democrat, both parties need to agree at the very least that they are. The democrat party is not innocent because there has been some doubt in previous years on election results, but those claims have not manifested into the dangers we are facing now. It can be argued that election legitimacy and true voter representation go hand and hand. When a country is founded on the principle that not all people are deserving of a vote because they are not recognized as human beings, like African Americans, or are second-class citizens like women, questioning whether the United States has a true democracy is valid. We have seen progress however, it has taken far too long, and some people are still falling through the cracks because of the lack of full access to our democratic process. There can be an argument made revolving around true representation however, how votes are validated, and the procedural aspects of elections cannot be influenced by party agendas. When we begin to cross that line, the unknown of the future is very dangerous.
I would like to note that out of the 377 candidates 136 of them have flip-flopped on the election claims which goes to show how the claims lack legitimacy even within the movement. President Biden spent this last week talking about democracy but seemed to fail at being an issue that would mobilize voters according to the polls. Democrats like Pat Ryan and President Biden continuously pointed out the threats to democracy but did not take off even with the number of candidates that are promoting those threats.
Like many people, I will be watching the results come in but also be looking out for rhetoric that was used back in 2020. The majority of early voting was done by mail so due to the time it takes for them to be counted, we might see late momentum that favors democrats like in 2020, which has the full possibility of reenergizing election decliners. Although, there is a significant chance that a late push will not be enough to get democrats over the finish line in key races. In battleground states like Pennsylvania and Arizona majority if not all their early voting has been done by mail so it will be interesting to see how those results come in.
In New York, the results of the 18th district alongside other competitive House races will most likely be known very quickly because 72% of their early vote was done in person and only 28% through the mail (NBC News).
This final weekend before election day has been surprisingly calming even with such an unknown future ahead no matter which side you are on. You can do as much polling as you can and have all the confidence in the world but come Tuesday reality kicks in and we can finally get the answers to the many questions we have asked. The fact that 40 million Americans have decided already has left candidates with the only option to get people out to vote. So, vote.
Sources:
https://news.gallup.com/poll/404243/economy-top-election-issue-abortion-crime-next.aspx
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/18/us/politics/midterm-election-voters-democracy-poll.html